El Banco de América ve el riesgo de un aumento de 50 puntos básicos en los tipos de interés de la Reserva Federal
Stephen Juneau, economista del Banco de América, dijo que el reciente informe de inflación refuerza la creencia de que la Reserva Federal adoptará otro aumento de tipos de interés. En una nota de investigación del 10 de noviembre, advirtió que podría ser necesario considerar un ajuste más significativo.
“Los datos prácticamente garantizan un aumento en diciembre”, dijo Juneau, añadiendo que es posible un incremento de 50 puntos básicos. No obstante, el banco mantuvo su previsión de un aumento de 25 puntos básicos en la reunión del Comité de Mercado Abierto Federal del 8 y 9 de diciembre.
Esta evaluación se produce tras la advertencia del gobernador de la Reserva Federal, Christopher Waller, sobre posibles nuevos aumentos de tipos de interés. Si la inflación subyacente de octubre fuera del 0,3% o superior, debería considerarse un aumento más considerable, afirmó Waller.
La inflación del IPC de octubre superó las expectativas de Wall Street
Según la Oficina de Estadísticas del Trabajo, los precios al consumo aumentaron un 0,4% en octubre, superando los 0,3% previstos por los economistas. La tasa de inflación subyacente (que excluye alimentos y energía) aumentó un 0,3%, frente a las expectativas de un 0,2%.
La lectura central de los indicadores económicos aumentó por tercero mes consecutivo un 0,3%, y las presiones inflacionarias persistieron en varias categorías. Durante octubre, los costos de los alimentos aumentaron un 0,5%, la energía un 0,7% y los alquileres un 0,3%.
Ahora, el Bank of America ha revisado su pronóstico de inflación en el gasto personal de los consumidores al 3,3% anual, un nivel más alto que el 2% estimado por la Fed. Otros costos que contribuyeron a la continua inflación, según el banco, fueron los productos electrónicos, los billetes de avión y los gastos de alojamiento.
Mientras tanto, la Fed decidió mantener el rango de tipos de interés sin cambios, entre el 3,75% y el 4,00%, en su reunión de octubre. El Bank of America cuestionó esta decisión, señalando que la Fed podría terminar quedándose rezagada con respecto a la tasa de inflación real.
Las probabilidades de que la Fed aumente los tipos de interés en diciembre alcanzan el 100%.
Tras el informe inflacionario, los mercados de futuros anticiparon un aumento de los tipos de interés en diciembre con una probabilidad cercana al 100%. Los datos de CME FedWatch indicaron que los operadores esperaban en su mayoría un aumento de 25 puntos básicos, en lugar de un ajuste más significativo.
No obstante, la probabilidad de un aumento de 50 puntos básicos aumentó alrededor del 13%, en comparación con casi cero antes del informe. Los precios del mercado reflejan las crecientes expectativas de que los responsables de la política económica puedan responder de manera más agresiva a la persistente inflación.
El Bank of America también advirtió que posibles medidas de endurecimiento monetario podrían producirse en enero, en lugar de marzo de 2027. La próxima reunión de política monetaria de la Fed está programada para los días 8 y 9 de diciembre, mientras que el informe sobre el IPC de noviembre se publicará el 10 de diciembre.
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