Chris Waller apoya un aumento de las tasas de interés en diciembre
En un discurso en Londres, Waller expresó que apoyaría un aumento de 25 puntos básicos en la reunión de diciembre del FOMC, incluso si los datos de inflación de octubre muestran una mejora. “Sin embargo, si la inflación es significativamente más alta de lo que espero, podría ser necesario que el FOMC tome medidas más drásticas”, agregó.
En su declaración, Waller señaló que el mercado laboral parece estable, mientras que la inflación está muy por encima del objetivo del 2% fijado por la Reserva Federal. Por lo tanto, cree que el FOMC debe aumentar las tasas para contener el aumento de la inflación.
El gobernador de la Reserva Federal también mencionó las circunstancias que podrían justificar la consideración de un aumento de 50 puntos básicos. Dijo que esto ocurriría si la lectura del IPC central de octubre fuera similar a las dos lecturas mensuales anteriores (0,3%) o fuera más alta.
“Un aumento de solo 25 puntos básicos pondría en riesgo nuestra credibilidad, un riesgo que no estoy dispuesto a asumir”, dijo Waller en referencia a una inflación de octubre más elevada de lo esperado. Cabe destacar que la Reserva Federal mantuvo las tasas estables en la reunión de octubre, después de haberlas aumentado en septiembre. El gobernador explicó que apoyó esa decisión porque no vio la necesidad de hacerlo en dos reuniones consecutivas.
Por qué la inflación podría seguir siendo elevada
En su discurso, Waller también expuso las razones por las que espera que los precios de la energía se mantengan altos. En primer lugar, destacó los costos que los barcos cisterna deben pagar para transportar petróleo a través del Estrecho de Ormuz, señalando que estos buques pagan seguros más caros y adoptan otras medidas de protección contra posibles ataques iraníes.
Como resultado, el gobernador de la Fed indicó que los precios del petróleo han aumentado hasta en 30 dólares por barril. En segundo lugar, mencionó que la producción de diésel se ha desacelerado debido a la limitada capacidad de las refinerías y otras restricciones. Por lo tanto, opinó que es poco probable que los precios del diésel en Estados Unidos disminuyan con la misma rapidez que los precios del petróleo crudo en una región de Oriente Medio más pacífica.
Mientras Waller hacía estas declaraciones, los traders de criptomonedas ya están aumentando sus apuestas a un aumento de las tasas de interés por parte de la Fed en diciembre. Los datos de la principal plataforma de predicciones de criptomonedas, Polymarket, muestran que hay casi un 90% de probabilidades de que el FOMC eleve las tasas de interés en su próxima reunión.
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